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FX Trends : G10 currencies: US trade policy outcomes in focus

25 July 2025

Key takeaways

  • US trade policy outcomes are set to shape the FX narrative in the coming weeks…
  • …posing two-sided risks to the USD, barring material escalation in tariffs…
  • The more optimistic could see the AUD and NZD strengthening against the USD.

Our tactical view

Table of tactical views where a currency pair is referenced (e.g. USD/JPY):An up (⬆) / down (⬇) / sideways (➡) arrow indicates that the first currency quotedin the pair is expected by HSBC Global Research to appreciate/depreciate/track sideways against the second currency quoted over the coming weeks. For example, an up arrow against EUR/USD means that the EUR is expected to appreciate against the USD over the coming weeks. The arrows under the “current” represent our current views, while those under “previous” represent our views in the last month’s report.

Explanation of terms

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