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Monthly View - Ad hoc GIC change
Markets’ US recession fears and Fed rate cut hopes seem overdone

5 Aug 2024

Willem Sels

Global Chief Investment Officer, HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth

  • Markets have seen sharp moves in recent days, as a number of triggers have coincided. Weaker-than-expected US job numbers have caused concern that the US could go into recession, but heightened Fed rate cut hopes, the unwinding of the carry trade, JPY strength, concerns over tech valuations and positioning adjustment during less-liquid summer months are also contributing factors
  • So what do we think of this? While the US economy is slowing, we do not think it is stalling or contracting. Job creation is falling but layoffs are low, and wage growth exceeds inflation, giving consumers more disposable income. The S&P500 earnings season has so far delivered 79 per cent positive surprises and corporate margins are at a record high – hardly typical for a recession. While some households and some companies have it harder than before, many others are doing well. So we maintain our US equity overweight but focus on earnings delivery and continue to broaden our positioning to balance sector and style exposure. As volatility has picked up, we like to get market beta exposure with a backstop
  • On the rate side, we expected a downward move in bond yields, but it has gone too quickly. Markets price in 1.25 per cent worth of Fed rate cuts this year and 2.25 per cent by the end of 2025, which we think is exaggerated. We also don’t think that US inflation over the next two years will average just 1.48 per cent, which is what markets now price in. So we tactically cut our US Treasury and UK gilt exposure to neutral and shorten our government bond duration to medium as technicals point to a retracement in the short term
  • We maintain our overweight in investment grade, as credit spreads are now more attractive and its duration is less than for government bonds. We think it is important to maintain a solid income block in portfolios and also like the diversification that high quality bonds provide
  • We further enhance diversification by moving to a mild overweight in hedge funds, due to their uncorrelated nature and the attractive opportunity set amid global uncertainties

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